The Week That Was: 2013-07-27 (July 27, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction. Blaise Pascal, [H/t Number Watch http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/religion.htm]
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Number of the Week: 2/3, 1/2, or less?
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
EPA Endangerment Finding: The US Solicitor General, Department of Justice, and EPA attorneys filed their petition to the US Supreme Court requesting that it deny the petition from the group in which SEPP participates asking for the court to review the decision by the US Circuit Court of Appeals upholding the EPA Endangerment Finding (EF) that greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), endanger public health or welfare. [For legal purposes the timing is December 7, 2009, the date of the EF.]
The standard asserted in the petition is quite loose. ?Although it found some ?uncertainties? in the scientific data, the EPA ?determined that the body of scientific evidence compellingly supports? the finding that greenhouse gases may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health and public welfare by driving global climate change.? [Boldface added.]
Elsewhere the petition states: ?? EPA explained that the global warming by greenhouses gas emissions will produce an increase in heat-related deaths; an increase in respiratory illness and premature death relating to poor air quality; and increased risk of death, injury, and disease relating to extreme weather events; and an increase in food- and water-borne diseases.? It goes on to state: ?greenhouse gas pollution is reasonably anticipated to endanger public welfare by causing ?net adverse impacts on U.S. food production and agriculture, with the potential for significant disruptions on crop failure in the future?? by endanger[ing] U.S. forestry in both the near and long term???
SEPP Comment: In spite of an enormous body of experimental and observational evidence that enhanced atmospheric CO2 is benefiting agriculture and forestry, the EPA can reasonably anticipate that CO2 will cause significant harm.
The petition states: ?The EPA relied principally on ?recent synthesis and assessment reports? of three scientific organizations: the United States Global Climate Research Program, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the National Research Council.?
It is here where we can assess the standards of science exhibited by the EPA, and the scientific organizations on which it relies: US Global Climate Research Program the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the National Research Council.
At the time of the endangerment finding there were several dozen global climate models, now there are at least 73. The US has 19. One climate model is sufficient ? if it has been validated.
? EPA offers no direct physical evidence that greenhouse gases are causing significant global warming or the dire future hazards.
? EPA relies heavily on global climate models for forecasts of future harm from increasing temperatures.
? From 1990 (first IPCC report) to the 2009 EF, the EPA and the scientific organizations upon which it relies have failed to produce a valid model
? Two decades is twice the time it took the Apollo team to model how to land men on the moon and bring them back, and to successfully complete the mission.
? Without direct physical evidence or a valid model, the EPA cannot establish causation ? that greenhouse gases are responsible for significant global warming or climate change.
? The failure to validate a model is recognized by the IPCC because after the 1990 report the IPCC shifted from using the scientifically proper term ?model predictions? to ?model projections.?
? The term ?model projections? is scientifically nebulous.
? All studies based on the models that have not been validated are scientifically nebulous, such as those that claim dire future weather events.
? Climate change has been occurring for hundreds of millions of years. The EPA has produced no evidence that it can successfully explain natural climate change.
? Without understanding the natural causes of climate change, the EPA cannot scientifically understand the human influence on climate.
? Without model validation, or a separate rigorous probability analysis, the confidence (likelihood) expressed by the EPA in the model results is opinion, not scientifically derived.
What we see is the failure of these government entities to properly conduct rigorous scientific research and that the consequences can become dire. Why have they failed to validate the models? Only the administrators of these programs can say. It is not for the lack of money. As stated in prior TWTWs, based on estimates by the GAO and the Congressional Research Service, the US has spent some $160 to $170 Billion on climate change activities from 1992 to 2012. Some administrators may claim they were not tasked with the responsibility of validating a model. But that is an excuse, if it is true, their reports should state that the report is based on un-validated climate models, clearly and predominately, so there is no misunderstanding. As stated previously, the Court?s decision on whether or not to hear the case will be on legal grounds, not scientific grounds. Unable to link to the EPA petition at this time.
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A Beginning of Model Validation? On his web site Climate Audit, Steve McIntyre had a pair of intriguing posts. The first, on July 21, was a teaser. It showed a simple model that visually outperformed the latest complex model from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT4) for describing temperature trends from 1900 to today. The model shows a modest increase in temperatures in response to carbon dioxide emissions. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 would result in a temperature increase of 1.67 deg C. This is a little more than one-half of claimed ?likelihood? 3 deg C, according to the IPCC.
In his July 26 post, McIntyre states many of his readers surmised that the simple model was one devised by Guy Callendar and published in 1938. Callendar was an early proponent of the greenhouse effect and believed that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide would be beneficial for humanity, including promoting plant growth, providing protection against extreme cold, and it may delay the return of another Ice Age, with destructive glaciation making much of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable.
Using established statistical techniques, McIntyre ran the Callendar model against 12 modern global circulation models and found that none of the 12 performed better and 10 performed far worse. It is too early to jump to conclusions from this analysis except to suggest that if simple models outperform complex models, then why rely on the complex models. ?As [Steve] Mosher observed in a comment on the predecessor post, a more complicated model ought to be able to advance beyond the simple model and, if there is a deterioration in performance, there?s something wrong with the model.? Advocates of complexity could argue, that their models produce results other than temperature as well, which is true, but temperature increase is the central issue. For the somewhat technical discussion please see links under Models v Observations.
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The Pause: The British Met Office [formerly, Metrological Office] produced three reports with titles starting with ?The recent pause in global warming:? David Whitehead observes that the reports may say more about the messenger than the message. Among other things, the reports imply there is nothing unusual about the current standstill. Which would come as a surprise to the EPA and its certainty in its findings. One of the models that was run multiple times reproduces the pause ? which speaks to the lack of rigor in the models. Perhaps the models can be likened to a pot of hot water in which gelatin has been dissolved. The final form depends upon the mold in which it is cooled, with temperature data being the mold.
The reports also suggest the missing heat is hiding in the deep ocean. How a warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect takes place, thousands of feet above the surface enters the deep oceans without leaving is trace is a mystery to be explained. The reports also state that the highest level of projected warming has been reduced, and that the most likely level is reduced by 10%. Although the terms verified and validity are mentioned, there is no effort to rigorously validate the models.
At least the Met Office recognizes there is a pause, which is something that the US Administration does not. Please see links under Lowering Standards.
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The Methane Bomb: Occasionally, an article appears claiming the warming of the Arctic will trigger an enormous discharge of methane, which, in turn, will cause significantly more global warming. A new one appeared in Nature, claiming a massive reserve of methane hydrates will be released with the warming of the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. A model was run estimating the staggering monetary costs to the world, about 85% of the 2012 world economy. Of course, it did not occur to the authors, or the editors, to ask why did this not occur about 8,000 to 5,000 years ago when the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere was considerably warmer than today? Or, since these methane deposits have existed for hundreds of thousands or millions of years, why did they not escape during the last interglacial period which was considerably warmer than today? Interestingly, Anthony Watts posted on his web site a comments on the paper by Gavin Schmidt of NASA-GISS, some of the points critical of the paper. Schmidt?s final point is particularly noteworthy: ?But we should not take what-if sensitivity experiments as predictions.? Please see links under Communicating Better to the Public ? Make things up
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EIA Report: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its annual report, which will be discussed in future TWTWs. The report projects a 56% increase in world energy consumption by 2040, with fossil fuels continuing to supply about 80% of the world?s energy. It is amusing to note that some editors chose to emphasize growth in renewables, even though renewables will continue to provide a small part of the growth in energy use. Please see links under Energy Issues ? Non-US.
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Number of the Week: 2/3, or 1/2, or less? How much should the IPCC reduce the? most likely warming? estimate for the 21st century in the upcoming report as compared with its 2007 report? Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels present an interesting discussion on the IPCC?s dilemma. Recent studies come up estimates far lower than that the IPCC used previously. To use these estimates in the upcoming report would undermine the following report on the dire consequences from the projected warming. (It would undermine the EPA endangerment finding as well.) Knappenberger and Michaels are betting the IPCC will essentially ignore the recent studies and mislead policymakers and the world. This would be consistent with the history of the IPCC, dismiss or ignore that you cannot explain. Please see link under Problems in the Orthodoxy
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week?s TWTW at: http://www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. China Weighs Environmental Costs
Beijing Tries to Emphasize Cleaner Industry Over Unbridled Growth After Signs Mount of Damage Done
By Richard Silk, WSJ, Jul 23, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324879504578597462908226052.html
[SEPP Comment: Doubt if China?s consideration includes the concept invented by the West ? carbon pollution. It appears the effort is to replace obsolete, inefficient plants coal-fired plants with more efficient coal-fired plants.]
2. E.ON Considering Power Plant Relocation
Mothballed European Plants May be Moved to Emerging Markets
By Hendrik Varnholt and Jan Hromadko, WSJ, Jul 24, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323610704578625952435949988.html
[SEPP Comment: What a novel idea! Move your power plants to countries that want them.]
3. Canada Oil Firm Still Unable to Stop Leaks
Four Separate Leaks Reported at Air-Force Base in Alberta
By Chester Dawson, WSJ, Jul 25, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323971204578626273811559896.html?mod=WSJ_Energy_2_4_Right
4. Pols, scientists misuse climate issue
By Charles Battig, VA-SEEE, Letter, The Daily Progress, Jul 26, 2013
http://www.dailyprogress.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editor/pols-scientists-misuse-climate-issue/article_01ff07fc-f5ee-11e2-b678-001a4bcf6878.html
[SEPP Comment: Oh? Mann Again!]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Science Media Centre spins the pause
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 22, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/7/22/science-media-centre-spins-the-pause.html
Challenging the Orthodoxy
September Release Planned for Climate Change Reconsidered II
By Jim Lakely, Somewhat Reasonable, Jul 26, 2013
http://blog.heartland.org/2013/07/september-release-planned-for-climate-change-reconsidered-ii/
[SEPP Comment: A definitive statement of critical issues unresolved prior to a purported definitive statement of a non-existing consensus.]
Refuting the myths of climate change
By Des Moore & Tom Quirk, Quadrant, Jul 25, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/07/refuting-the-myths-of-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: Thorough, somewhat technical, analysis with a ?down under? slant.]
The Logical Case against Climate Panic
By The Viscount Monckton of Brenchly, SPPI, Jul 23, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/the_logical_case_against_climate_panic.html
Logic is the heartbeat of all true learning ? the soul of the Classics, the Sciences and Religion. Once everyone studied the Classics, to know that in logic there is a difference between true and false; the Sciences, to discern where it lies; and Religion, to appreciate why it matters. Today, few study all three empires of the mind. Fewer study the ordered beauty of the logic at their heart.
Veteran German Meteorologist Calls Climate Findings ?Procured? ?Sees Only 0.5?C Of Warming For CO2-Doubling
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 24, 2013
http://notrickszone.com/2013/07/24/veteran-german-meteorologist-calls-climate-findings-procured-sees-only-0-5c-of-warming-for-co2-doubling/
Defending the Orthodoxy
Shifting patterns of temperature volatility in the climate system
By Staff Writers, London, UK (SPX), Jul 26, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Shifting_patterns_of_temperature_volatility_in_the_climate_system_999.html
[SEPP Comment: It is the climate establishment that claimed uniformity.]
Earth?s self regulation of Carbon Dioxide is remarkably stable
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 23, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/23/earths-self-regulation-of-carbon-dioxide-is-remarkably-stable/
?Warming is the one thing that we know with most certainty will occur under climate change in the tropics, but there are still large uncertainties about the future precipitation in tropical regions,? says Dr Canadell, who is also Executive Director of the Canberra-based Global Carbon Project.
[SEPP Comment: Atmospheric warming over the tropics is not significant.]
Has global warming stopped? No ? it?s just on pause, insist scientists, and it?s down to the oceans
Temperatures still expected to reach predicted 2015 levels with only a five-year delay after 12 of the 14 hottest years on record
By Steve Connor, Independent, Jul 22, 2013
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/has-global-warming-stopped-no?its-just-on-pause-insist-scientists-and-its-down-to-the-oceans-8726893.html
Rapid upper ocean warming linked to declining aerosols
By Staff Writers, Canberra, Australia (SPX), Jul 24, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Rapid_upper_ocean_warming_linked_to_declining_aerosols_999.html
It?s not just the heat ? it?s the ozone: Study highlights hidden dangers
By Staff Writers, SPX, Jul 23, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Its_not_just_the_heat_its_the_ozone_Study_highlights_hidden_dangers_999.html
[SEPP Comment: What is the cause of an increase in ozone production? Could it be certain emissions from green plants?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
All quiet on the third front
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Jul 22, 2013
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2013_july.htm
?Ten Billion and Catastrophe??
By Dennis Avery, Center for Global Food Issues, Jul 17, 2013
http://www.cgfi.org/2013/07/ten-billion-and-catastrophe-by-dennis-t-avery/
Natural Gas: Pipeline To Prosperity?Bridge Fuel To Nowhere
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jul 23, 2013
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/07/23/natural-gas-pipeline-to-prosperity-bridge-fuel-to-nowhere/
Global Warming Is Not The World?s Top Problem, Energy Is
By Hank Campbell, Science 2.0, Jul 26, 2013
http://www.science20.com/science_20/blog/global_warming_not_worlds_top_problem_energy-117173
[SEPP Comment: Providing for a better future for the poor.]
IER?s Robert Murphy on the Social Cost of Carbon
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Jul 24, 2013
http://www.globalwarming.org/2013/07/24/iers-robert-murphy-on-the-social-cost-of-carbon/#more-17199
[SEPP Comment: Addressing bureaucratic absurdity.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The IPCC AR5 Is in Real Trouble
By Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels, Cato, Jul 26, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/ipcc-ar5-real-trouble
The start of the end ? Mainstream press says ?Politicians go cold on global warming?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 23, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/the-start-of-the-end-mainstream-press-says-politicians-go-cold-on-global-warming/
Andrew Neil on Ed Davey climate change interview critics
By Andrew Neil, BBC, Jul 22, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23405202
[SEPP Comment: A response to alarmists who were critical of Neil of BBC for asking tough questions.]
The 97% ?consensus?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jul 26, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/26/the-97-consensus/#more-12315
Global warming scare is dying
By Charles Adler, Toronto Sun, Jul 18, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/18/global-warming-scare-is-dying
Seeking a Common Ground
NOAA: 2012 Heat Wave March and July explained by natural variability ? similar to 1910, 1934
Posted by Staff, ICECAP, Jul 25, 2013
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/summer_arctic_snowstorm/
Link to paper: The Making of An Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together
By Dole, et al, AMS, No date given.
Several lines of evidence strongly implicate natural variations as the primary cause for the extreme event. [March 2012 US warmth]
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00069.1?af=R&
[SEPP Comment: One group in NOAA demonstrating scientific integrity.]
What?s behind the battle of received wisdoms?
By Ben Pile, Making Science Public, Jul 23, 2013
http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingsciencepublic/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/
And those who shout most loudly about science turn out to be advancing an idea of science which, rather than emphasising [sic] the scientific method, puts much more store ? let?s call it ?faith? ? in scientific institutions. Hence, the emphasis on the weight, number and height of scientific evidence articles, and expertise, rather than on the process of testing competing theories.
Lowering Standards
Raptures of the Deep
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jul 24, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/raptures-deep/
Links to MET Briefing papers: The recent pause in global warming (1): What do observations of the climate system tell us?
By Staff, Met Office, July 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/s/Paper1_Observing_changes_in_the_climate_system.PDF
The recent pause in global warming (1): What are the potential causes?
By Staff, Met Office, July 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.PDF
The recent pause in global warming (3) What are the implications for projections of future warming?
By Staff, Met Office, July 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/2/Paper3_Implications_for_projections.pdf
Part 1 ? Comments on the UKMO Report about ?The Recent Pause in Global Warming?
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jul 25, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/25/part-1-comments-on-the-ukmo-report-about-the-recent-pause-in-global-warming/
UK Met Office on the pause
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jul 23, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/23/uk-met-office-on-the-pause/#more-12279
Expanding the Orthodoxy
CIA Backs $630,000 Scientific Study on Controlling Global Climate
Conspiracy theorists, rejoice!
By Dana Liebelson & Chris Mooney, Mother Jones, Jul 17, 2013
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/07/cia-geoengineering-control-climate-change
Link to project information: Geoengineering Climate: Technical Evaluation and Discussion of Impacts
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, CIA,
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/projectview.aspx?key=49540
[SEPP Comment: CIA controlling the climate will be very interesting since we do not know the natural causes of change. But the CIA is in charge.]
Questioning European Green
Listening to Science
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Jul 26, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/listening-science
[SEPP Comment: The precautionary principle is a barrier to advancement not an aid to reason.]
Germany: Coal Power Expanding, Green Energy Stagnating
By Staff Writer, Der Westen, Trans by Philipp Mueller, GWPF, Jul 25, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/germany-coal-power-expanding-green-energy-stagnating/
Merkel Aid Clash With EU Raises Risk From Exxon to Bayer
By Stefan Nicola & Naomi Kresg, Bloomberg, Jul 17, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-16/merkel-to-press-eu-to-allow-industry-energy-intensive-waivers.html
[SEPP Comment: Institute policies that cost electrical ratepayers a fortune, then burden the households even further by bribing corporations not to leave ? green government.]
ScottishPower blames government energy efficiency schemes for rising costs
ScottishPower has reignited the row over who is to blame for rising energy bills after reporting the costs of government energy efficiency schemes had more than doubled since last year.
By Emily Gosden, The Telegraph, Jul 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10200859/ScottishPower-blames-government-energy-efficiency-schemes-for-rising-costs.html
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Great Green Fleet = Big Red Ink
By David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Jul 24. 2013
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/07/24/great-green-fleet-big-red-ink/
Let?s get our priorities right
By Bj?rn Lomborg, WUWT, Jul 20, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/20/lomborg-lets-get-our-priorities-right/
Let?s burn forests and millions of dollars! It?s another Nanny-State business ?success?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 24, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/lets-burn-forests-and-millions-of-dollars-its-another-nanny-state-business-success/#more-29692
Green Jobs
Green Jobs: Surely You?re Joking, Mr. President
By David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Jul 26, 2013
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/07/26/green-jobs-surely-youre-joking-mr-president/
Communicating Better to the Public ? Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Alaska?s boreal forests burning more with climate change
By Betina Boxall, LA Times, Jul 22, 2013
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-alaska-boreal-forests-wildfire-20130722,0,383693.story
[SEPP Comment: The historic evidence indicates massive fires as the boreal forests died back from cold following the warm period of 8,000 to 5,000 years ago.]
Declining sea ice strands baby harp seals
By Staff Writers, Durham NC (SPX), Jul 26, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Declining_sea_ice_strands_baby_harp_seals_999.html
Link to paper not found.
[SEPP Comment: At issue is winter and spring sea ice; not fall ice melt. No statements about the ice conditions in the critical season.]
New iceberg theory points to areas at risk of rapid disintegration
By Staff Writers, Ann Arbor MI (SPX), Jul 23, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_iceberg_theory_points_to_areas_at_risk_of_rapid_disintegration_999.html
Link to paper: Diverse calving patterns linked to glacier geometry
By J. N. Bassis & S. Jacobs, Nature Geoscience, Jul 21, 2013
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1887.html
[SEPP Comment: Poor reporting.]
Study explains Pacific equatorial cold water region
By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Jul 26, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Study_explains_Pacific_equatorial_cold_water_region_999.html
Because this is a huge expanse [of equatorial ocean] that takes up heat from the atmosphere, understanding how it does so is critical to seasonal weather patterns, El Nino, and to global climate change.
[SEPP Comment: Stirring the cream in the coffee cup example! How does it take heat from the atmosphere that is not measured in the atmosphere, especially that which is claimed to be occurring thousands of feet above the ocean? This may be an experiment on exploring the depths of gullibility among journalists.]
Communicating Better to the Public ? Make things up.
Arctic methane breach an ?economic time bomb?
By Staff Writers, Paris, France (AFP), July 24, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arctic_methane_breach_an_economic_time_bomb_999.html
Link to paper: Vast costs of Arctic change
By Whiteman, Hope, and Wadhams, Nature, Jul 24, 2013
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/full/499401a.html
Gavin on why the Arctic methane alarm is implausible
By Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS, on WUWT, Jul 25, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/25/gavin-on-why-the-arctic-methane-alarm-is-implausible/
Arctic time bomb (?)
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jul 25, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/25/arctic-time-bomb/#more-12300
[SEPP Comment: Curry questions the plausibility of the time bomb report.]
Is the Arctic Melt Going to Cost Us Dearly?
By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Jul 25. 2013
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/07/25/is-the-arctic-melt-going-to-cost-us-dearly/
[SEPP Comment: More questions on the Arctic time bomb.]
Delaware?s ?Future Weather?
We?re getting burned by phony science and authoritarian power grabs
By Paul Driessen and David Legates, SPPI, Jul 24, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/delawares_future_weather.html
[SEPP Comment: All levels of government are infected by climate experts who have a model that has not been validated.]
Vulnerable Maryland weighs threat of sea-level rise
By Darryl Fears, Washington Post, Jul 21, 2012 [H/t Conrad Potemra]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/vulnerable-maryland-weighs-threat-of-sea-level-rise/2013/07/21/37201d50-efe9-11e2-bed3-b9b6fe264871_story.html
?Our estimate is we should prepare for a sea level that?s going to be almost up to my chest, well over my knees,? Boesch said. ?We better prepare for that. We need to be ready to make some difficult and tough decisions about what we?re going to protect.?
Communicating Better to the Public ? Go Personal.
Dr. Willie Soon Guest Comment: ?Is What I Say Beyond the Boundaries of Reasonable Discussion??
By Russell Cook, Gelbspan Files, Jul 26, 2013
http://gelbspanfiles.com/?p=609
[SEPP Comment: Describing attacks on Soon and the constant attacks on skeptics by those who disagree with their science and falsely claim massive funding from oil and gas industries.]
Models v. Observations
Results from a Low-Sensitivity Model
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jul 21, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/07/21/results-from-a-low-sensitivity-model/
Guy Callendar vs the GCMs
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jul 26, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/07/26/guy-callendar-vs-the-gcms/#more-18244
Measurement Issues
Why Antarctic Sea Ice Is the Better Climate Change Indicator
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jul 22, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/why-antarctic-sea-ice-is-the-better-climate-change-indicator/
[SEPP Comment: The Arctic sea ice is subject to many types of variations (confounding variables), making it a poor indicator of greenhouse gas warming.]
No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jul 23, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/23/no-consensus-among-three-global-precipitation-datasets/
Changing Weather
Cold spring weather catastrophic for Poland?s stork populations
By Staff Writers, Wolsztyn, Poland (UPI), Jul 25, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Cold_spring_weather_catastrophic_for_Polands_stork_populations_999.html
It may get wet yet! How one Met office expert is convinced the heatwave is a ?blip?? and that we?re still in for a WASHOUT summer
Scientists talked of a cycle of soaking and predicted a cool and wet month
But Britain?s longest heatwave for seven years is set to continue next week
UK is on course for the driest July since records began in 1910
But one Met Officer expert insists it?s just a ?blip?
By Adam Lee-Potter and Jill Reilly, Mail Online, Jul 22, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2372011/UK-heatwave-2013-It-wet-How-Met-office-expert-convinced-heatwave-blip.html
Changing Climate
Evidence of Medieval Warm Period in North America: South of the United States
By Staff, SPPI & CO2 Science, Jul 17, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/evidence_of_medieval_warm_period_in_north_america.html
The warm weather may be a precursor to a Little Ice Age
By David Whitehouse, PS Europe, Jul 23, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/3822/the-warm-weather-may-be-a-precursor-to-a-little-ice-age
[SEPP Comment: A big question mark!]
?
Changing Cryosphere ? Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Summer Snowstorm
By Joseph D?Aleo, WUWT, Jul 25, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/25/oh-what-a-difference-a-year-makes-in-greenland-melting/
Ancient Antarctic ice got muddy
By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), Jul 23, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ancient_Antarctic_ice_got_muddy_999.html
[SEPP Comment: This was before the beginning of the current period of ice ages. Likely prior to the thermohaline circulation and the strong currents circulating around Antarctica. Strangely, the article does not discuss these.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Interactive Effects of CO2 and Water Stress on Agricultural Crop Growth
By Staff, SPPI and CO2 Science, Jul 25, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/interactive_effects_of_c02_and_water_stress_on_agricultural_crop_growth.html
Impact of Rising C02 on Agricultural Methane Emissions
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Jul 23, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/impact_of_rising_c02_on_agricultural_methane_emissions.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Corals Moving Northward in the Western Mediterranean Seas
Reference: Serrano, E., Coma, R., Ribes, M., Weitzmann, B., Garcia, M. and Ballesteros, E. 2013. Rapid northward spread of a zooxanthellate coral enhanced by artificial structures and sea warming in the Western Mediterranean. PLOS ONE 8: e52739.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jul/23jul2013a2.html
Southern Ocean Bottom Water Formation in CMIP5 Models
Reference: Heuze, C., Heywood, K.J., Stevens, D.P. and Ridley, J.K. 2013. Southern Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters: 10.1002/grl.50287.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jul/23jul2013a4.html
Climate Change Conversations: Establishment Scientists Getting It Wrong
Reference: Shakhashiri, B.Z. and Bell, J.A. 2013. Climate Change Conversations. Science 340: 9.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jul/24jul2013a1.html
Holocene Temperatures at the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Margin
Reference: Axford, Y., Losee, S., Briner, J.P., Francis, D.R., Langdon, P.G. and Walker, I.R. 2013. Holocene temperature history at the western Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments. Quaternary Science Reviews 59: 87-100.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jul/24jul2013a3.html
The Political Games Continue
Critical Thinking on Climate Change
Minority Report: US Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee, Jul 18, 2013
http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=f4ace657-9490-4f4c-86f3-25d367e2085c
[SEPP Comment: The Republican report prior to last week?s hearing.]
Why is Obama lying on climate change?
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Jul 21, 2013 [H/t Jim Rust]
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/maritanoon/2013/07/21/why-is-obama-lying-on-climate-change-n1645569/page/full
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The real free market is making the fake carbon markets pointless
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 26, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/the-real-free-market-is-making-the-fake-carbon-markets-pointless/
Link to paper: Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon
By Andrew, Davis and Peters, Environmental Research Letters, Jul 24, 2013
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034011
Carbon programs? backlash in Australia, EU bode ill for U.S. efforts to fight climate change
By Tim Devaney, Washington Times, Jul 18, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/18/carbon-programs-backlash-in-australia-eu-bode-ill-/
Current Wisdom: We Calculate, You Decide: A Handy-Dandy Carbon Tax Temperature-Savings Calculator
By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, Cato, Jul 23, 2013 [H/t Jo Nova]
http://www.cato.org/blog/current-wisdom-we-calculate-you-decide-handy-dandy-carbon-tax-temperature-savings-calculator
[SEPP Comment: Cleaver idea, but the calculator did not work Saturday afternoon.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Ethanol industry has EPA as ally in battle against big oil
By Timothy Carney, Washington Examiner, Jul 19, 2103
http://washingtonexaminer.com/ethanol-industry-has-epa-as-ally-in-battle-against-big-oil/article/2533290?utm_source=Tim%20Carney%20Reoccurring%20-%2007/21/2013&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Washington%20Examiner:%20Timothy%20P%20Carney
Shepherds Flat developers took full advantage federal, state and local taxpayer subsidies to fund the $2 billion wind farm
By Ted Sickinger, The Oregonian, Jul 21, 2013 [H/t Wind Action]
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2013/07/shepherds_flat_wind_farm_devel.html
[SEPP Comment: How to milk a wind mill.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
House bill slashes EPA budget by 34 percent
By Erik Wasson and Ben Geman, The Hill, Jul 22, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/appropriations/312537-house-bill-slashes-epa-budget-by-34-percent
[SEPP Comment: And block rules on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.]
New EPA chief exhorts agency staff to ?act now on climate change?
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jul 22, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/312561-new-epa-chief-to-staff-this-is-a-defining-time-for-epa
[SEPP Comment: May not have a budget in a few years, see link immediately above.]
Overriding Consumer Preferences with Energy Regulations
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Jul 23, 2013, July 23, 2013
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=23409&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
Energy Issues ? Non-US
Federal report: World energy consumption to grow 56 percent by 2040
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jul 25, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/313449-federal-report-world-energy-consumption-to-increase-56-percent-by-2040
Link to the report: International Energy Outlook 2013
By Staff, US Energy Information Administration, July 25, 2013
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/
EIA Projects Massive Growth for Renewables, Nuclear Power Through 2040
By Sonal Petal, Power News, Jul 25, 2013
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5813.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2716920&hq_l=5&hq_v=5e660500d0
Chevron Draws Europe Toward Natural Gas Independence: Energy
By Ladka Bauerova, Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-23/chevron-anticipates-europeans-prefer-fracking-to-putin-energy.html
Energy Issues ? US
U.S. Energy Policy: New Mindset Needed (?energy security? narrative must go)
By Peter Grossman, Master Resource, Jul 26, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/07/energy-security-narrative-must-go/
[SEPP Comment: Abandon the arrogance of US energy policy. The issue is not independence of the markets, but physically security in time of war.]
Demoralize the anti-oil fringe
By Robert Bradley, Leader & Times, Jul 25, 2013
http://www.leaderandtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12687:demoralize-the-anti-oil-fringe&catid=29:opinion&Itemid=58
[SEPP Comment: Environmentalists protesting prosperity for the poor.]
Oil and Natural Gas ? the Future or the Past?
Natural Gas Liquids: A Revolution Within the US Shale Boom
By Tim Daiss, Energy Tribune, Jul 23, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/78355/natural-gas-liquids-a-revolution-within-the-us-shale-boom#sthash.2g5yqRYi.dpbs
Now gas-rich Israel goes for oil in East Med
By Staff Writers, Tel Aviv, Israel (UPI), Jul 24, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Now_gas-rich_Israel_goes_for_oil_in_East_Med_999.html
DOE official: Chinese natural gas could ?wreak havoc? on markets
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jul 25, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/313489-doe-official-chinese-natural-gas-could-wreak-havoc-on-markets
[SEPP Comment: What could be a boon for China would wreak havoc on the bureaucratic interpretation of markets.]
Frac Bounty: All Should Participate (resource creation for economic revival
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Jul 25, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/07/fracing-bounty-all-should-participate-resource-creation-for-economic-revival/#more-26791
Mineral Rich Australia May Contain World?s Next Major Oil Find
By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com, Washington DC (SPX), Jul 24, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Mineral_Rich_Australia_May_Contain_Worlds_Next_Major_Oil_Find_999.html
Return of King Coal?
The war on coal
We?re all inconsiderate carbon polluters now
Editorial, Washington Times, Jul 22, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/22/the-war-on-coal/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Radioactive water leaked into sea at Fukushima: TEPCO
By Staff Writers, Tokyo, Tokyo Province (AFP), July 22, 2013
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Radioactive_water_leaked_into_sea_at_Fukushima_TEPCO_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Will the leak pollute the world?s oceans? Absurd!]
Alternative, Green (?Clean?) Solar and Wind
As Dog Days Of Summer Grip Europe, German Windparks And Consumers Take A Massive Hit
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 26, 2013
http://notrickszone.com/2013/07/26/as-dog-days-of-summer-grip-europe-german-windparks-and-consumers-take-a-massive-hit/
Energy impact
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 21, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/7/21/energy-impact.html
[SEPP Comment: The photo of wind turbines and gas wells in Germany is revealing ? which would you prefer in your backyard?]
Environmental concerns over solar farms should not overshadow wider benefits to rural economies
By Staff Writers, London, UK (SPX), Jul 24, 2013
http://www.solardaily.com/reports/Environmental_concerns_over_solar_farms_should_not_overshadow_wider_benefits_to_rural_economies_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Substitute gas wells for solar farms and imagine the different response.]
Wind Farm Rotor Failures
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Jul 26, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/07/26/wind-farm-rotor-failures/
[SEPP Comment: Describing repairs to a rotor blade, with photos. Imagine the costs involved in doing it offshore.]
Wind farm bird deaths more than thought
By Staff Writer, IWAG, Jul 21, 2013 [H/t Wind Action}
http://www.windaction.org/news/38980
Link to paper: Comparing bird and bat fatality-rate estimates among North American wind-energy projects
By K. Shawn Smallwood, Wildlife, Mar 26, 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wsb.260/abstract
[SEPP Comment: Dislike headlines such as more than thought! Who was doing the thinking? Estimates about 543,000 birds, 83,000 of which are soaring birds of prey, and about 888,000 bats in US.]
Alternative, Green (?Clean?) Energy ? Other
South Africa, Riots and the Price of Food
Rising food prices were an important factor in the riots in South Africa last year. And the US is in a unique position to help combat the problem, say researchers
By Staff Writer, MIT Technology Review, Jul 24, 2013
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/517396/south-africa-riots-and-the-price-of-food/?utm_campaign=newsletters&utm_source=newsletter-daily-all&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20130724
[SEPP Comment: No food ? just biofuels!]
Alternative, Green (?Clean?) Vehicles
?Demand? for Nissan Leaf is All Hype and Subsidies
By Paul Chesser, NLPC, Jul 23, 2013
http://nlpc.org/stories/2013/07/23/demand-nissan-leaf-all-hype-and-subsidies
California Dreaming
California Energy Policy: Southeastern States
By Lance Brown, Master Resource, Jul 24, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/07/california-energy-policy-southeastern-states/#more-26711
[SEPP Comment: California is longer a beacon but a lighthouse warning of a dangerous threat.]
Other Scientific News
World changing technology enables crops to take nitrogen from the air
By Staff Writers, Nottingham, UK (SPX), Jul 26, 2013
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/World_changing_technology_enables_crops_to_take_nitrogen_from_the_air_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Potentially a huge benefit for agriculture, will greens oppose it by advocating the anti-advancement precautionary principle.
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Spain Levies Consumption Tax on Sunlight
By Mike Shedlock, Global Trend Analysis, Jul 26, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/07/spain-levies-consumption-tax-on-sunlight.html
Climate change is making poison ivy grow bigger and badder
By David Templeton, Pittsburg Post Gazette, Jul, 22, 2013
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/health/climate-change-is-making-poison-ivy-grow-bigger-and-badder-696379/
Indoctrination At Schools In Germany Reaches New Level ?Children Taught ?Men Cause Climate Change?
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 23, 2013
http://notrickszone.com/2013/07/23/indoctrination-at-schools-in-germany-reaches-new-level-children-taught-men-cause-climate-change/
[SEPP Comment: Sexism in climate education!]
N.Y. professor suggests regulating air condition to cool global warming
By Jeff Maher, ABC, Jul 22, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.news10.net/news/local/article/251443/2/Does-air-conditioning-need-to-be-regulated
[SEPP Comment: Would this New York sociologist suggest turning off the heat in the winter?]
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